Al Qaeda Strikes Back
May 17, 2007
Here is an antidote for all the smoke, nonsense, and obfuscation emanating from the band of presidential hopefuls. If they just knew how silly they are making themselves look as they pontificate on geo-politics! Unfortunately, the antidote requires a larger investment in time and thought that most of us are willing or able to make, but here it is, anyway.
Foreign Affairs - Al Qaeda Strikes Back - Bruce Riedel
Decisively defeating al Qaeda will be more difficult now than it would have been a few years ago. But it can still be done, if Washington and its partners implement a comprehensive strategy over several years, one focused on both attacking al Qaeda’s leaders and ideas and altering the local conditions that allow them to thrive. Otherwise, it will only be a matter of time before al Qaeda strikes the U.S. homeland again.
I’m willing to grant that the U.S. went to war in Iraq for all the wrong reasons, based on a naive understanding of the politics of the region, but the principle of sunk costs says that we cut the recriminations and go on from here, whether we like our options at this point or not.
Al Qaeda today is a global operation — with a well-oiled propaganda machine based in Pakistan, a secondary but independent base in Iraq, and an expanding reach in Europe. Its leadership is intact. Its decentralized command-and-control structure has allowed it to survive the loss of key operatives such as Zarqawi. Its Taliban allies are making a comeback in Afghanistan, and it is certain to get a big boost there if NATO pulls out. It will also claim a victory when U.S. forces start withdrawing from Iraq. “The waves of the fierce crusader campaign against the Islamic world have broken on the rock of the mujahideen and have reached a dead end in Iraq and Afghanistan,” a spokesperson for the newly proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq said on November 29, 2006. “For the first time since the fall of the Ottoman caliphate in the past century, the region is witnessing the revival of Islamic caliphates.”
Looking at the presidential wannabes, I wonder where among them is the potential leader who is able and willing to acquire the grasp of the Middle East realities to the degree than Reidel apparently does. Human frailty and egotism being what they are, this may be a forlorn hope, but history does provide examples of such insight, I optimiatically think.
My cynical self whispers to me that Reidel may be just blowing smoke and that, in fact, reconciling our national interest with Mid-East realities is impossible. May be.
In Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan, the governments have strengthened the secret police and given them carte blanche to strike al Qaeda and its sympathizers. The United States and its allies in Europe have also provided additional counterterrorism assistance to the targeted regimes and stepped up cooperation with their security forces. The lesson is clear: al Qaeda is still too weak to overthrow established governments equipped with effective security services; it needs failed states to thrive.
What a complicated situation this is, and what an unpleasant legacy to leave for future generations!
Dave, who ought to know better than trying to understand such things.
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